Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +32 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | IU -5.0 (+27.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -6.4 (+25.6) | 132.1 (-12.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -8.7 (+23.3) | 132.7 (-12.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -13.2 (+18.8) | 140.3 (-20.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#81) | 8.6 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#77) | 1.82 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#89) | 2.86 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#33) | 0.625 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 32.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.1% | 36.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 32.6% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 82.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 13.5% |
Game Analysis
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