They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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45–14 on winners spread MAE 9.9 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UAlbany @ Kentucky +21.8 139.3 91% 61–86 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Eastern Kentucky +13.1 141.6 87% 43–82 ✓
Western Illinois @ Northern Kentucky -1.2 144.5 40% 69–67 ✓
Troy @ Florida Atlantic +5.0 147.6 68% 83–78 ✗
Lafayette @ Rutgers +16.7 139.1 89% 53–51 ✗
South Dakota State @ Nevada -7.1 156.8 23% 102–75 ✓
Hofstra @ Richmond +6.4 149.5 73% 68–81 ✓
Coppin State @ Cleveland State +9.0 135.4 80% 62–65 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Georgia Tech +16.8 151.1 90% 70–85 ✓
Virginia @ Georgia +1.1 135.5 56% 65–55 ✗
Harvard @ Siena -8.4 144.4 22% 69–72 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Ohio +16.0 142.6 88% 59–73 ✓
Delaware @ App State -1.1 142.8 43% 75–68 ✓
UCLA @ Bellarmine -14.9 156.5 13% 75–62 ✓
Colorado State @ Northeastern -2.5 138.1 35% 71–61 ✓
Charleston @ Oklahoma State +15.0 152.4 86% 66–96 ✓
Belmont @ LSU +14.3 153.7 86% 53–83 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Northern Arizona +9.2 152.2 80% 82–80 ✗
Long Beach State @ Missouri State +5.0 158.7 67% 66–92 ✓
Tarleton State @ North Dakota State +4.0 132.4 64% 53–54 ✓
Florida @ California -8.3 136.5 20% 80–60 ✓
Florida State @ Missouri -7.7 135.5 22% 81–58 ✓
Western Michigan @ Iowa +24.1 155.9 91% 61–109 ✓
The Citadel @ Duke +13.9 147.5 85% 81–107 ✓
Arkansas @ Kansas State -1.2 146.1 45% 72–64 ✓
Winthrop @ Washington State +19.9 155.4 91% 86–92 ✓
UC Riverside @ UTEP +9.7 140.6 81% 52–40 ✗
Kansas City @ Idaho State -2.7 132.6 33% 74–58 ✓
Wyoming @ Grand Canyon -1.3 134.1 39% 68–61 ✓
Morgan State @ San Francisco +16.4 151.5 88% 67–83 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Valparaiso -8.0 129.3 21% 70–78 ✗
George Mason @ Washington -10.2 140.9 18% 74–77 ✗
Providence @ Northwestern -1.2 144.9 43% 77–72 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Seattle U +13.6 150.2 87% 56–77 ✓
Chicago State @ Pacific +3.1 133.4 60% 58–74 ✓
Santa Clara @ TCU -2.0 145.6 42% 85–66 ✓
Gonzaga @ Central Michigan -15.1 148.7 15% 107–54 ✓
Utah Tech @ USC +24.2 154.8 91% 71–98 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Notre Dame -1.3 134.2 43% 62–59 ✓
Fresno State @ Pepperdine -2.6 138.6 40% 70–63 ✓
Vermont @ Evansville -6.8 130.1 24% 58–49 ✓
Wright State @ James Madison +7.3 142.4 79% 76–78 ✓
Southern Utah @ Yale +6.9 137.1 77% 88–85 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Rider -3.7 138.7 35% 60–54 ✓
App State @ Akron +0.0 124.7 52% 57–45 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Towson +8.7 142.9 78% 61–76 ✓
Texas A&M @ Butler -5.7 130.9 26% 57–50 ✓
Drexel @ Charlotte +1.0 147.6 57% 67–55 ✗
Long Beach State @ Murray State +5.0 144.9 68% 43–80 ✓
Milwaukee @ Bowling Green -3.4 140.0 37% 68–82 ✗
Bucknell @ Mercer +3.4 147.7 65% 68–78 ✓
Quinnipiac @ New Hampshire +11.0 142.2 85% 69–84 ✓
Wisconsin @ Houston +1.6 122.9 59% 65–63 ✗
Georgia @ Northwestern +6.3 142.8 76% 62–78 ✓
Oakland @ Rice -4.3 141.2 33% 76–73 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Liberty +2.8 132.5 63% 51–59 ✓
Tulane @ Toledo +2.5 148.3 65% 67–68 ✓
George Washington @ Kent State +3.2 137.0 67% 69–77 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Buffalo +5.6 154.8 75% 79–78 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.