Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -20.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +16 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -7.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -6.5 (+9.5) | 131.8 (+0.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -3.1 (+12.9) | 133.4 (-1.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -3.7 (+12.3) | 133.7 (-1.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -3.7 (+12.3) | 133.3 (-1.3) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 3-15 |
| Home | 7-7 | 5-9 |
| Away | 0-13 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#253) | -3.6 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#341) | 0.56 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.55 (#333) | 1.06 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.156 (#358) | 0.477 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 25.0% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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