Betting Lines
| Spread | JXST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
| Money | VAL +220 JXST -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | JXST -12.4 (+20.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (+21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JXST -8.0 (+16.0) | 133.8 (+14.2) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JXST -8.0 (+16.0) | 129.3 (+18.7) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JXST -9.5 (+17.5) | 129.5 (+18.5) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JXST -8.0 (+16.0) | 134.5 (+13.5) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#319) | 3.8 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.43 (#355) | -0.78 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.90 (#358) | -1.03 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.292 (#350) | 0.425 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 4.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 12.2% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 37.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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