Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -8.0 Push |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +8 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -1.7 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -3.9 (-4.1) | 143.1 (-7.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -1.2 (-6.8) | 146.1 (-10.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -1.0 (-7.0) | 146.0 (-10.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -2.2 (-5.8) | 144.2 (-8.2) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 17-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#191) | 0.5 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#133) | 0.60 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#147) | 0.75 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#279) | 0.412 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 43.9% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 82.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 11.1% |
Game Analysis
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