Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YALE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +3 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | YALE -9.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+36.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -5.9 (-8.9) | 140.9 (+32.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -6.9 (-9.9) | 137.1 (+35.9) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -7.3 (-10.3) | 137.6 (+35.4) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -6.6 (-9.6) | 141.3 (+31.7) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YALE | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#97) | -5.2 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#140) | -2.01 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#136) | -3.53 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#178) | 0.299 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YALE | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 22.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 40.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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