Betting Lines
| Spread | SEA -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | SEA -1800 UAPB +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEA +21 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SEA -15.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEA -11.2 (+9.8) | 147.1 (-14.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEA -13.6 (+7.4) | 150.2 (-17.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEA -15.0 (+6.0) | 151.0 (-18.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEA -14.9 (+6.1) | 151.0 (-18.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEA | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 17-2 | 5-7 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#139) | -6.3 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#152) | -1.14 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#157) | -1.84 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#217) | 0.497 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEA | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 63.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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