Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +37 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -5.3 (+31.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-30.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -7.2 (+29.8) | 141.9 (-18.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -5.0 (+32.0) | 144.9 (-21.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -5.0 (+32.0) | 146.1 (-23.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -7.8 (+29.2) | 142.8 (-19.8) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-3 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 12-3 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 11-1 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#123) | -2.4 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#163) | -0.11 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#158) | 0.19 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#215) | 0.494 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 53.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 45.7% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 57.9% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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