Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MER -5.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -4.6 (+5.4) | 147.7 (-1.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -3.4 (+6.6) | 147.7 (-1.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -3.3 (+6.7) | 148.1 (-2.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -2.5 (+7.5) | 150.1 (-4.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#186) | -6.3 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#291) | -2.11 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#286) | -2.96 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.338 (#331) | 0.372 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 11.6% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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