Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | OHIO -1300 MSM +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +14 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -21.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -15.7 (-1.7) | 141.3 (-9.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -16.0 (-2.0) | 142.6 (-10.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -16.5 (-2.5) | 142.5 (-10.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -16.4 (-2.4) | 141.6 (-9.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 65.4 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#73) | -7.2 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#68) | -0.56 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#80) | -1.75 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#60) | 0.443 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.2% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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