Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +5 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -7.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -6.5 (-11.5) | 145.7 (+15.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -5.0 (-10.0) | 147.6 (+13.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -4.8 (-9.8) | 149.5 (+11.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -6.7 (-11.7) | 149.5 (+11.5) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#220) | -2.6 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#276) | -1.21 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#269) | -1.61 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#227) | 0.433 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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