Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +3 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -2.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -1.6 (-1.4) | 131.7 (-10.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -1.3 (-1.7) | 134.2 (-13.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -1.6 (-1.4) | 133.7 (-12.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -2.2 (-0.8) | 130.9 (-9.9) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-3 |
| Home | 14-1 | 16-0 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 61.3 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#209) | 0.4 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#150) | 0.74 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#155) | 0.83 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#65) | 0.429 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 80.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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