Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RID win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +6 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -3.9 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (-22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -2.3 (-3.7) | 138.0 (-24.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -3.7 (-2.3) | 138.7 (-24.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -3.1 (-2.9) | 140.0 (-26.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -3.7 (-2.3) | 141.1 (-27.1) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RID | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#267) | -1.2 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#313) | -0.22 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.80 (#312) | -0.54 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.314 (#343) | 0.442 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RID | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 23.9% | 25.7% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 40.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 26.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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