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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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52–16 on winners spread MAE 9.4 68 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Illinois @ Kansas State -5.9 132.0 25% 72–64 ✓
Nevada @ George Mason +8.8 146.2 80% 88–69 ✗
Hartford @ Merrimack +4.3 131.1 62% 60–75 ✓
Lipscomb @ Tennessee Tech +1.5 142.6 53% 77–88 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ South Carolina State -0.7 135.5 44% 82–78 ✓
American University @ UMBC +6.7 144.1 74% 67–98 ✓
Louisiana @ Marshall +5.4 139.3 64% 79–93 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Maine +4.0 137.0 66% 64–56 ✗
Jackson State @ Indiana +18.5 136.3 88% 35–70 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ St. John's +22.1 151.2 91% 70–76 ✓
Wofford @ South Carolina +6.3 136.3 69% 74–85 ✓
Columbia @ Lehigh +2.8 142.9 59% 72–79 ✓
UNC Asheville @ North Carolina +9.6 152.4 83% 53–72 ✓
Rhode Island @ Florida Gulf Coast +1.8 139.9 54% 66–67 ✓
Long Island University @ Saint Peter's +16.1 144.2 90% 62–64 ✓
Central Michigan @ Bellarmine +5.0 143.9 71% 69–76 ✓
Virginia @ Providence +6.5 135.7 77% 58–40 ✗
Delaware @ Fordham +1.2 147.2 49% 81–71 ✗
Oregon @ Saint Mary's +1.8 137.5 62% 50–62 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Valparaiso -1.0 136.3 46% 64–61 ✓
Missouri State @ East Tennessee State -2.9 141.3 39% 76–77 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UT Rio Grande Valley -7.7 151.4 21% 67–72 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Wake Forest +17.4 147.6 88% 61–92 ✓
Omaha @ Texas Tech +19.8 142.6 90% 40–96 ✓
Illinois State @ Saint Louis +10.1 157.4 81% 76–82 ✓
Tennessee State @ Nebraska +13.9 144.5 87% 73–79 ✓
Cincinnati @ Arkansas -4.4 142.1 31% 67–73 ✗
Washington @ South Dakota State +7.6 154.7 80% 87–76 ✗
Gonzaga @ UCLA -6.1 158.5 28% 83–63 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Stanford +5.8 133.8 70% 65–79 ✓
Northern Colorado @ San José State +1.9 138.4 56% 74–75 ✓
Portland @ Portland State +2.1 138.4 63% 69–54 ✗
UC Davis @ Sacramento State -1.7 139.3 39% 63–75 ✗
Akron @ Evansville -0.2 124.3 47% 69–60 ✓
Milwaukee @ Yale +6.2 138.8 75% 56–69 ✓
North Dakota @ Florida International +12.4 139.5 86% 56–65 ✓
Long Beach State @ Wright State +0.4 156.4 54% 85–76 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ UAlbany +4.3 126.3 70% 62–64 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Michigan State -1.0 147.0 47% 61–63 ✗
Rider @ Bucknell -1.6 144.0 45% 85–79 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Campbell +8.4 131.4 78% 55–66 ✓
App State @ Vermont +3.2 122.0 64% 63–65 ✓
Southern Utah @ Bowling Green -1.8 147.6 44% 87–73 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ NJIT +8.8 137.7 80% 54–62 ✓
Central Arkansas @ LSU New Orleans +11.2 144.5 85% 63–90 ✓
Coppin State @ Canisius +8.5 139.5 80% 75–76 ✓
Stony Brook @ Fairfield +13.4 140.6 87% 78–83 ✓
Houston @ Oregon -7.6 135.9 24% 78–49 ✓
UConn @ Auburn -5.0 142.8 31% 115–109 ✓
Drexel @ Jacksonville State -1.7 136.2 43% 64–72 ✗
Murray State @ James Madison -5.6 130.6 29% 74–62 ✓
Idaho @ Cal Poly +7.4 137.1 77% 63–67 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Mercer -1.6 134.0 43% 82–58 ✓
Lamar @ UTSA +1.9 143.1 53% 73–79 ✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Michigan +2.7 147.3 54% 68–72 ✓
Saint Francis @ Cornell +10.0 153.3 83% 80–93 ✓
VMI @ Presbyterian -2.4 138.2 42% 54–59 ✗
Denver @ Air Force +8.3 129.8 79% 65–66 ✓
Fordham @ Rice -0.3 149.7 53% 84–74 ✓
Wisconsin @ Saint Mary's -4.2 127.5 32% 61–55 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Western Kentucky +11.3 140.7 85% 62–88 ✓
William & Mary @ Radford +5.3 129.2 66% 54–67 ✓
VCU @ Syracuse +1.6 130.7 55% 67–55 ✗
Utah Valley @ Nicholls -5.8 137.8 24% 74–63 ✓
Valparaiso @ Tulane +3.1 139.4 62% 68–64 ✗
Missouri State @ George Washington -7.1 140.0 23% 72–54 ✓
Seton Hall @ California -13.2 137.7 14% 62–59 ✓
Buffalo @ Illinois State -6.4 157.8 25% 106–90 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.