Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | SAC +330 UCD -410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAC +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -2.7 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -0.9 (+12.9) | 141.3 (-3.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UCD -1.9 (+13.9) | 138.1 (-0.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UCD -1.7 (+13.7) | 139.3 (-1.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -2.2 (+14.2) | 138.4 (-0.4) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | UCD 77 – 73 SAC |
| Dec 15, 2024 | UCD 69 – 62 SAC |
| Nov 27, 2023 | SAC 69 – 63 UCD |
| Nov 23, 2022 | UCD 82 – 71 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 5-6 |
| Home | 6-8 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#300) | 2.8 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#184) | 2.17 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#196) | 3.17 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#112) | 0.589 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.1% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 23.2% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.9% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 20.3% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 62.1% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.3% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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