Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -163 SAC +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -1.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -1.1 (+9.9) | 137.0 (+16.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -2.6 (+8.4) | 135.9 (+17.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -1.8 (+9.2) | 134.8 (+18.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -1.6 (+9.4) | 138.0 (+15.0) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | UCD 77 – 73 SAC |
| Dec 15, 2024 | UCD 69 – 62 SAC |
| Nov 27, 2023 | SAC 69 – 63 UCD |
| Nov 24, 2021 | SAC 75 – 63 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#96) | 3.0 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#136) | 1.59 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#137) | 1.63 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#188) | 0.618 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 42.6% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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