Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -400 SAC +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAC +6 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -15.1 (-21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -10.3 (-16.3) | 140.2 (-8.2) | 82% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UCD -9.8 (-15.8) | 138.2 (-6.2) | 76% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UCD -10.4 (-16.4) | 143.7 (-11.7) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -11.7 (-17.7) | 144.0 (-12.0) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | UCD 77 – 73 SAC |
| Dec 15, 2024 | UCD 69 – 62 SAC |
| Nov 23, 2022 | UCD 82 – 71 SAC |
| Nov 24, 2021 | SAC 75 – 63 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 10-24 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-6 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#172) | -9.1 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#112) | -3.03 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#107) | -4.62 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#221) | 0.334 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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