Betting Lines
| Spread | RICE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | RICE -270 FOR +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +10 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | FOR -1.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICE -1.4 (-11.4) | 151.0 (+7.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -0.3 (-9.7) | 149.7 (+8.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -0.0 (-10.0) | 149.7 (+8.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -0.1 (-9.9) | 150.7 (+7.3) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICE | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#172) | 0.9 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#101) | -0.84 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#103) | -0.89 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#149) | 0.402 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICE | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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