Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +12 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -1.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -1.0 (+11.0) | 131.3 (-19.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -1.8 (+10.2) | 137.5 (-25.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -2.5 (+9.5) | 140.0 (-28.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -2.0 (+10.0) | 136.4 (-24.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-0 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.3 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#138) | -0.0 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#59) | -0.03 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#74) | -0.02 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#101) | 0.554 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 81.5% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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