Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | TULN -190 VAL +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +4 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | TULN -4.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -3.4 (-7.4) | 140.2 (-8.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -3.1 (-7.1) | 139.4 (-7.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -2.5 (-6.5) | 138.7 (-6.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -2.7 (-6.7) | 141.8 (-9.8) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#174) | -4.6 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#200) | -1.80 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#198) | -3.01 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#258) | 0.368 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 4.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 13.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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