Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
| Money | STAN -1450 NCAT +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +14 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -7.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -10.1 (+3.9) | 131.1 (+12.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -5.8 (+8.2) | 133.8 (+10.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -6.7 (+7.3) | 132.8 (+11.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -6.4 (+7.6) | 132.3 (+11.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2020 | STAN 78 – 46 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#190) | -1.6 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#123) | -1.88 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#114) | -2.53 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#108) | 0.329 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 12.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 79.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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