Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | NCAT +1600 STAN -6000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +32 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | STAN -1.7 (-30.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -3.6 (-28.4) | 140.9 (-16.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -0.2 (-31.8) | 144.6 (-20.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -1.5 (-30.5) | 145.1 (-21.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -1.5 (-30.5) | 147.0 (-23.0) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 24, 2021 | STAN 79 – 65 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#220) | 4.8 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#175) | 0.37 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#182) | 1.23 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#208) | 0.580 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 18.1% | 19.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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