Betting Lines
| Spread | WRST -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
| Money | WRST -550 LBSU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LBSU +9 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | WRST -3.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WRST -3.0 (-12.0) | 153.3 (+7.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WRST -0.4 (-9.4) | 156.4 (+4.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WRST -0.9 (-9.9) | 158.1 (+2.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WRST -1.7 (-10.7) | 156.4 (+4.6) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WRST | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-7 | 12-3 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#314) | -11.2 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#339) | -1.41 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.00 (#342) | -2.01 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#296) | 0.448 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WRST | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 22.5% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 24.3% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 59.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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