Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +1 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -4.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -2.8 (+3.8) | 141.7 (+11.3) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -2.9 (+3.9) | 141.3 (+11.7) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -2.7 (+3.7) | 142.9 (+10.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -2.7 (+3.7) | 141.4 (+11.6) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#144) | 5.7 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#142) | -0.20 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#121) | 0.38 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#171) | 0.403 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 12.2% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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