Betting Lines
| Spread | CAM -18.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAM +11 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | CAM -13.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAM -6.9 (+4.1) | 132.0 (-11.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAM -8.4 (+2.6) | 131.4 (-10.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAM -9.9 (+1.1) | 130.7 (-9.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAM -10.4 (+0.6) | 130.6 (-9.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAM | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#87) | -1.3 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#57) | 0.09 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#67) | -0.01 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#31) | 0.466 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAM | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 36.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 11.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 11.5% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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