Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | AF -12.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -8.3 (-7.3) | 129.8 (+1.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -7.1 (-6.1) | 129.2 (+1.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -8.2 (-7.2) | 128.5 (+2.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -8.8 (-7.8) | 128.9 (+2.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 4-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.0 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#177) | -5.5 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#31) | -0.93 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#52) | -1.67 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#153) | 0.361 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 28.8 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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