Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | EMU -125 WIU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | EMU -3.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EMU -0.4 (+3.6) | 153.2 (-13.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EMU -2.7 (+1.3) | 147.3 (-7.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EMU -2.3 (+1.7) | 149.6 (-9.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EMU -2.7 (+1.3) | 152.4 (-12.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-14 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#165) | 4.3 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#293) | 1.93 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#262) | 2.32 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#203) | 0.698 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 16.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 8.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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