Betting Lines
| Spread | CAN -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +1 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | CAN -14.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -8.7 (-7.7) | 145.2 (+5.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -8.5 (-7.5) | 139.5 (+11.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAN -9.7 (-8.7) | 138.2 (+12.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -8.5 (-7.5) | 142.9 (+8.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 3-6 |
| Away | 1-15 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#183) | -7.7 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#300) | -1.94 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.54 (#306) | -2.88 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#252) | 0.419 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.6% | 34.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.5% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 18.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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