Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
Cal Poly Mustangs
67 – 63
FINAL Neutral SoCal Challenge
Idaho Vandals
JSerra Pavillion (Neutral) · November 24, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread CP -8.0 Away covered
O/U 132.0 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total CP win
Actual CP +4 130 Won
Massey CP -11.2 (-7.2) — —
Massey Totals — 140.2 (-10.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 57% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 78% ✓
Baseline Plus ML CP -8.7 (-4.7) 135.7 (-5.7) 81% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ CP -7.8 (-3.8) 136.2 (-6.2) 82% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML CP -7.4 (-3.4) 137.1 (-7.1) 77% ✓
Baseline ML CP -6.8 (-2.8) 135.7 (-5.7) 83% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 22, 2025 IDHO 83 – 80 CP
Dec 2, 2023 IDHO 85 – 70 CP
Nov 24, 2022 CP 82 – 71 IDHO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CP IDHO
Overall 7-21 9-22
Conference 2-12 6-14
Home 4-7 8-7
Away 2-12 1-12
Neutral 1-2 0-3
Last 5 0-4 0-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 60.6 71.9
Avg Pts Against 67.9 80.3
Massey -10.4 (#336) -21.6 (#359)
Bradley-Terry -3.37 (#355) -3.64 (#356)
W. Bradley-Terry -4.13 (#343) -5.42 (#356)
RPI 0.333 (#337) 0.426 (#265)
Shooting & Four Factors CP IDHO
FG% 39.7% 34.2%
3PT% 30.6% 34.0%
REB / G 35.2 28.8
OREB / G 10.8 8.0
AST / TO 0.77 0.78
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.0% 41.6%
TOV% 23.3% 20.1%
ORB% 31.2% 19.4%
FT Rate 26.3% 28.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.8% 58.6%
Opp TOV% 19.0% 18.0%
DRB% 68.1% 64.3%
Opp FT Rate 26.1% 25.7%

Game Analysis

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