The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
Cal Poly Mustangs
67 63
FINAL Neutral SoCal Challenge
Idaho Vandals
JSerra Pavillion (Neutral) · November 24, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread CP -8.0 Away covered
O/U 132.0 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total CP win
Actual CP +4 130 Won
Massey CP -11.2 (-7.2)
Massey Totals 140.2 (-10.2)
Bradley-Terry 57%
Weighted B-T 78%
Efficiency Plus ML CP -8.6 (-4.6) 135.8 (-5.8) 83%
Baseline Tuned ML CP -8.3 (-4.3) 137.1 (-7.1) 81%
Baseline ML CP -7.4 (-3.4) 137.1 (-7.1) 83%
Baseline Plus ML CP -9.0 (-5.0) 137.4 (-7.4) 84%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 22, 2025 IDHO 8380 CP
Dec 2, 2023 IDHO 8570 CP
Nov 24, 2022 CP 8271 IDHO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CP IDHO
Overall 7-21 9-22
Conference 2-12 6-14
Home 4-7 8-7
Away 2-12 1-12
Neutral 1-2 0-3
Last 5 0-4 0-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 60.6 71.9
Avg Pts Against 67.9 80.3
Massey -10.4 (#336) -21.6 (#359)
Bradley-Terry -3.37 (#355) -3.64 (#356)
W. Bradley-Terry -4.13 (#343) -5.42 (#356)
RPI 0.333 (#337) 0.426 (#265)
Shooting & Four Factors CP IDHO
FG% 39.7% 34.2%
3PT% 30.6% 34.0%
REB / G 35.2 28.8
OREB / G 10.8 8.0
AST / TO 0.77 0.78
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.0% 41.6%
TOV% 23.3% 20.1%
ORB% 31.2% 19.4%
FT Rate 26.3% 28.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.8% 58.6%
Opp TOV% 19.0% 18.0%
DRB% 68.1% 64.3%
Opp FT Rate 26.1% 25.7%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.