Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | YALE -270 MILW +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YALE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +13 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | YALE -10.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -7.8 (+5.2) | 142.7 (-17.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -6.2 (+6.8) | 138.8 (-13.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -6.6 (+6.4) | 140.9 (-15.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -6.8 (+6.2) | 142.7 (-17.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YALE | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 8-14 |
| Home | 10-3 | 6-10 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#124) | -7.7 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#192) | -1.33 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#190) | -1.63 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#233) | 0.448 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YALE | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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