Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | ILST +400 BUF -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +16 | 196 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -8.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 180.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -7.7 (-8.3) | 161.9 (+34.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -6.4 (-9.6) | 157.8 (+38.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -6.8 (-9.2) | 160.2 (+35.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -6.1 (-9.9) | 163.0 (+33.0) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-3 |
| Away | 1-11 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#246) | 4.8 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#296) | -0.24 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#302) | -0.02 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.384 (#303) | 0.552 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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