Betting Lines
| Spread | UALB -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UALB -250 EIU +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UALB +2 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UALB -9.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UALB -5.4 (-3.4) | 130.5 (-4.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UALB -4.3 (-2.3) | 126.3 (-0.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UALB -3.6 (-1.6) | 124.4 (+1.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UALB -4.1 (-2.1) | 128.2 (-2.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 4-8 | 4-9 |
| Away | 8-9 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 54.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#315) | -17.1 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.02 (#358) | -2.78 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.15 (#358) | -3.37 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.309 (#345) | 0.367 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 32.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 37.9% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 27.4% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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