Betting Lines
| Spread | UVU -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | NICH -105 UVU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +11 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UVU -8.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVU -6.4 (-4.6) | 137.4 (-0.4) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -5.8 (-5.2) | 137.8 (-0.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -5.6 (-5.4) | 140.4 (-3.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVU -6.1 (-4.9) | 141.2 (-4.2) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-1 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 65.7 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#236) | 4.9 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#168) | 2.22 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#187) | 3.60 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#176) | 0.525 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 39.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 14.7% |
Game Analysis
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