Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +26 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | WKU -18.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -17.0 (+9.0) | 141.2 (+8.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -11.3 (+14.7) | 140.7 (+9.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -11.4 (+14.6) | 139.0 (+11.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -11.5 (+14.5) | 141.8 (+8.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#150) | -10.1 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#239) | -1.25 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#234) | -3.12 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#125) | 0.402 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 34.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 37.9% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.8% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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