Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | GW +450 MOST -650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +18 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -9.3 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -10.2 (-7.8) | 142.0 (-16.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -7.1 (-10.9) | 140.0 (-14.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -6.0 (-12.0) | 141.4 (-15.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -6.3 (-11.7) | 143.4 (-17.4) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#244) | 5.7 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#254) | -0.20 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#274) | 0.38 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#249) | 0.403 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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