Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +3 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | CCU -2.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -1.0 (-2.0) | 136.3 (-11.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -0.9 (-2.1) | 134.6 (-9.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -1.3 (-4.3) | 136.6 (-11.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-8 | 13-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#263) | -2.2 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#310) | -1.22 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.01 (#319) | -2.38 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.368 (#318) | 0.222 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 33.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 4.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 36.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 13.5% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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