Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Over |
| Money | SDST -300 WASH +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WASH +11 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -12.6 (-23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -8.0 (-19.0) | 161.2 (+1.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -7.6 (-18.6) | 154.7 (+8.3) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -8.3 (-19.3) | 154.3 (+8.7) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -8.0 (-19.0) | 156.5 (+6.5) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-0 | 11-6 |
| Away | 10-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#32) | -1.8 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#19) | -0.34 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.01 (#18) | -1.19 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#56) | 0.473 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 35.7% |
| 3PT% | 42.1% | 25.3% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.0% | 39.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 24.9% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.9% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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