Betting Lines
| Spread | SC -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SC +11 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | SC -7.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (+28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SC -3.3 (+7.7) | 133.0 (+26.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SC -6.3 (+4.7) | 136.3 (+22.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SC -5.6 (+5.4) | 135.2 (+23.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SC -4.3 (+6.7) | 136.4 (+22.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SC | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#81) | 5.6 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#119) | 1.01 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#126) | 1.80 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#95) | 0.573 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SC | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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