Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | UVM -220 APP +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +2 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -5.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -2.9 (-0.9) | 123.1 (+4.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -3.2 (-1.2) | 122.0 (+6.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -3.9 (-1.9) | 123.7 (+4.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -2.9 (-0.9) | 124.6 (+3.4) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-0 | 11-5 |
| Away | 10-4 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.1 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#125) | -2.8 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#150) | -0.76 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#171) | -0.72 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#151) | 0.485 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 18.1% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 79.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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