Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +8 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -10.3 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -9.5 (+1.5) | 130.5 (+5.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -5.9 (-2.1) | 132.0 (+4.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -6.1 (-1.9) | 133.2 (+2.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -6.0 (-2.0) | 135.5 (+0.5) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#225) | 7.8 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#193) | 0.63 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#202) | 1.41 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#294) | 0.591 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 46.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 18.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 24.9% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 44.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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