Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +19 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -11.0 (-30.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -7.7 (-26.7) | 145.8 (+11.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -8.8 (-27.8) | 146.2 (+10.8) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -8.8 (-27.8) | 148.3 (+8.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -7.8 (-26.8) | 148.2 (+8.8) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#57) | -3.5 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#128) | -1.41 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#136) | -1.55 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#89) | 0.479 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 57.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 13.9% |
Game Analysis
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