Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -18.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -14.4 (-8.4) | 147.6 (+4.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -13.9 (-7.9) | 144.5 (+7.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -14.8 (-8.8) | 144.2 (+7.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -15.2 (-9.2) | 145.7 (+6.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-12 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#198) | -12.2 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#217) | -2.45 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#178) | -4.84 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#264) | 0.332 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.2% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 26.0% |
| ORB% | 19.7% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.2% | 48.4% |
Game Analysis
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