Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +13 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -10.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -5.6 (+7.4) | 128.5 (-7.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -5.3 (+7.7) | 129.2 (-8.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -6.7 (+6.3) | 126.8 (-5.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -5.8 (+7.2) | 127.4 (-6.4) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | W&M 96 – 83 RAD |
| Nov 9, 2024 | RAD 89 – 77 W&M |
| Nov 23, 2022 | W&M 62 – 51 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-5 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#291) | -10.1 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#283) | -3.26 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#268) | -4.93 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#295) | 0.359 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.0% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.52 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 35.8% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 25.0% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 13.1% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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