Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +12 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | SYR -1.4 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -0.7 (-12.7) | 127.9 (-5.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -1.6 (-13.6) | 130.7 (-8.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -0.8 (-12.8) | 131.0 (-9.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -1.7 (-13.7) | 129.4 (-7.4) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 62.4 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#119) | 1.5 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#182) | 0.88 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#185) | 2.41 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#196) | 0.585 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 43.1% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.87 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 27.5% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 36.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 26.5% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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