Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UTSA -0.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -3.6 (+2.4) | 141.0 (+11.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -1.9 (+4.1) | 143.1 (+8.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -2.3 (+3.7) | 144.4 (+7.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -2.6 (+3.4) | 143.9 (+8.1) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2023 | UTSA 86 – 83 LAM |
| Nov 15, 2023 | LAM 90 – 82 UTSA |
| Dec 23, 2020 | UTSA 88 – 66 LAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Massey | -14.7 (#349) | -7.9 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#279) | -2.56 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#278) | -3.25 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#260) | 0.324 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.5% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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