Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +18 | 98 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -10.4 (-28.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (-36.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -5.2 (-23.2) | 128.5 (-30.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -6.5 (-24.5) | 135.7 (-37.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -5.2 (-23.2) | 134.1 (-36.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -5.6 (-23.6) | 129.4 (-31.4) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-7 |
| Away | 7-2 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 60.1 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#33) | 0.3 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.19 (#1) | -0.30 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.43 (#1) | -0.09 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.705 (#10) | 0.466 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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