Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 118.0 Under |
| Money | SMC +125 WIS -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +6 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | WIS -7.9 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -4.6 (-1.4) | 125.3 (-9.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -4.2 (-1.8) | 127.5 (-11.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -4.0 (-2.0) | 128.2 (-12.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -4.7 (-1.3) | 127.6 (-11.6) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-0 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.3 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#138) | 9.7 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#59) | 2.08 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#74) | 3.31 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#101) | 0.625 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 81.5% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 14.4% |
Game Analysis
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