Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -4000 UNCA +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +19 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -14.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-35.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -15.6 (+3.4) | 148.2 (-23.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -9.6 (+9.4) | 152.4 (-27.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -10.9 (+8.1) | 153.3 (-28.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -11.0 (+8.0) | 153.1 (-28.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 6-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#120) | -3.8 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#125) | 0.17 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#115) | -0.01 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#91) | 0.516 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 27.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 80.1% | 53.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 13.7% |
Game Analysis
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