Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | MER -200 MTSU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +24 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -0.0 (-24.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -0.4 (-23.6) | 133.6 (+6.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -1.6 (-22.4) | 134.0 (+6.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -1.9 (-22.1) | 134.9 (+5.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -1.9 (-22.1) | 135.7 (+4.3) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#157) | 0.9 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#236) | 0.36 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#230) | 0.03 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#245) | 0.514 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 34.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 27.2% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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