Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -2.0 Push |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -135 LUC +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +2 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -3.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -1.4 (+3.4) | 142.7 (-18.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -1.0 (+3.0) | 147.0 (-23.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -1.1 (+3.1) | 148.4 (-24.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -0.5 (+2.5) | 149.5 (-25.5) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 61.9 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#19) | 16.4 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#83) | 1.13 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#73) | 1.40 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#82) | 0.544 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 53.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 45.2% |
| REB / G | 44.2 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 2.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 63.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.8% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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